THE Asia-US transpacific spot rates are expected to surge due to two factors: labour strikes at US west coast ports and draught restrictions in the Panama Canal, reports London's Loadstar.

As a result of prolonged labour unrest at the ports, cargo is being redirected to gateways on the US east coast and Gulf Coast, accelerating the shift in coastal cargo flow.

However, the largest vessels operating on the Asia-US east coast Panama routes are now facing new draught limitations at the neopanamax locks.

This means these ships must pass through the canal with significantly reduced loads.

To address these challenges, several carriers have implemented surcharges since June 1, and there are rumours of specific General Rate Increases (GRIs) being announced for transpacific Panama Canal routes.

Maersk mentioned that the drought season in Panama is leading to drought issues, reducing the capacity of the Panama route.

Hapag-Lloyd also highlighted that lower water levels in the two lakes supplying the canal are causing severe restrictions on vessels.

Ocean carriers will have to consider downsizing the vessels deployed on the Asia-US east coast Panama Canal routes.

However, voyages with smaller tonnage could result in financial losses unless the carriers can significantly increase rates.

An alternative option for carriers could be to reroute more Asia-US east coast strings through the Suez Canal, despite the higher costs associated with the longer transit time.

According to eesea data, a Pro-forma round-trip for a Panama route takes 77 days, compared to the average of 84 days for a Suez Canal routing.

While the Suez Canal route would ensure unrestricted vessel utilization, carriers would need additional ships to accommodate the increased capacity.

According to a carrier contact, the Panama Canal draught restrictions are causing significant challenges for cargo planners, and they must be cautious in load planning due to uncertainties surrounding potential further restrictions.

Meanwhile, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) confirmed that last month experienced the driest conditions in over 70 years.

Concerns are growing that the drought will worsen with the return of the El Nino climate phenomenon later this year, potentially leading to unprecedented heatwaves and a surge in global temperatures.