US tariffs will sharply reduce North American container volumes next year, while ship deliveries and route shifts are expected to depress freight rates through 2028, reported Seoul's Maeil Business Newspaper.

According to Korea Maritime Development Corporation, UK-based Maritime Strategies International (MSI) forecasts North American cargo volumes will fall 7.8 per cent in 2026 to 20.96 million TEU, down from 22.74 million TEU this year.

MSI projects modest recovery in 2027 and 2028, with growth of 4.5 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively. European volumes are expected to grow steadily, rising 2.1 per cent in 2026 and 2.5 per cent in 2027, as cargo shifts from high-tariff US routes.

Freight rates are forecast to decline. European route rates are expected to fall from US$2,418 per TEU this year to US$1,011 by 2028. North American rates will drop from US$3,502 per FEU to US$2,010 over the same period.

MSI attributes the rate decline to increased ship deliveries, with new capacity reaching 3.4 million TEUs by 2028. The Suez Canal's expected reopening will also boost supply and reduce transit times.

China's share of US imports from the Far East fell 10 per cent between January and May, reflecting tariff impacts. MSI said the shift is already visible in trade data.