Russian crude oil exports continue to defy US pressure

 Russia's seaborne crude shipments remain at a 16-month high, with buyers resisting US President Donald Trump's calls to halt trade. Four-week average exports reached 3.62 million barrels a day to September 28, matching levels last seen in May 2024, reports Bloomberg.

Despite Washington's lobbying, countries including India, Turkey, Hungary and Slovakia continue to import Russian oil. Indian officials told the US that cutting back would require sourcing from sanctioned suppliers Iran and Venezuela.

China, Russia's top oil customer, has pledged to deepen energy ties. Beijing's Ministry of Commerce said it would defend its interests after the US urged the G-7 to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent.

In August, India faced a 25 per cent tariff on exports to the US. Although tanker volumes to Indian ports have dropped, shipments with no declared destination beyond the Suez Canal have surged, likely bound for Indian refineries.

Indian refiner Nayara Energy, sanctioned by the European Union in July, has increased reliance on Russian crude as it recovers.

Hungary and Slovakia rejected Trump's push to end Russian oil imports. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban warned of a 4 per cent economic hit, while Slovak President Peter Pellegrini cited technical and logistical constraints.

Turkey continues to import about 300,000 barrels a day of Russian crude, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan showing no signs of backing down.

Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian refineries may be driving more crude to export terminals, though spare capacity is limited.

In the week to September, 36 tankers loaded 26.75 million barrels of Russian crude, up from 23.69 million barrels on 31 ships the previous week.

Baltic port Primorsk maintained flows at 1.25 million barrels a day on 12 tankers, while Kozmino rebounded after a four-day gap.

Export value rose by $240 million to $1.57 billion. Urals prices from the Baltic and Black Sea climbed to $56.38 and $56.59 a barrel, while Pacific ESPO slipped to $62.65. Delivered prices in India hit an eight-week high of $67.18.

On a four-week average, Urals from the Baltic rose to $55 a barrel, Black Sea cargoes to $55.22, and Pacific ESPO fell to $62.80. Export value averaged $1.46 billion a week.

Shipments to Asia rose to 3.23 million barrels a day in the 28 days to September 28, the highest since May 2024. Indian refiners remain committed to Russian crude for November and December.

Tankers signalling Indian ports fell to 960,000 barrels a day, but over one million barrels a day remain on vessels with no declared destination. Of that, 800,000 barrels a day are likely bound for India.

Flows to Turkey edged up to 340,000 barrels a day. Shipments to Syria dropped to 35,000 barrels a day.