Import volumes at major US container ports are not yet significantly affected by the conflict in Iran, but rising fuel costs linked to the turmoil could impact retailers and consumers, reports the National Retail Federation.

NRF vice president Jonathan Gold said the global supply chain is vulnerable to disruptions anywhere, with ripple effects from vessel rerouting, equipment shortages and higher fuel costs. He noted retailers are monitoring developments daily while also facing rising tariffs and trade policy uncertainty that pressure imports and prices.

US President Donald Trump last month imposed a temporary 10 per cent global tariff under the Trade Act of 1974 after the Supreme Court ruled against the use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. He later adjusted Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper and added new tariffs on pharmaceutical products.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said tariffs have slowed US container imports but the Iran conflict has limited direct impact as little cargo originates there. However, the Strait of Hormuz blockade is driving up fuel costs worldwide, with Asian ports at risk of shortages if the conflict persists. He said the two week ceasefire announced Tuesday is too recent to gauge its effect.

Mr Hackett added that while US ports have no fuel shortages, international pricing drives costs higher, inflating shipping expenses and consumer prices. Global Port Tracker data showed ports handled 1.95 million TEU in February, down 7.5pc from January and 4.2pc year on year, with March projected at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3pc.

Forecasts put April at 2.08 million TEU, down 5.6pc year on year, May at 2.09 million TEU, up 7.3pc, and June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.9pc. July is expected at 2.2 million TEU, down 8pc, and August at 2.18 million TEU, down 6pc. The first half of 2026 is projected at 12.3 million TEU, down 1.8pc from 12.53 million TEU a year earlier.

Imports in 2025 totalled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3pc from 25.5 million TEU in 2024. Global Port Tracker, produced by Hackett Associates for NRF, covers major US ports and provides historical data and forecasts. Subscription details are available at NRF.com/PortTracker.