The traditional US peak shipping season may fail to materialise this year as weak consumer confidence and inflation weigh on retailers' restocking plans, reports New York's Journal of Commerce.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates said the war with Iran has driven economic uncertainty, with imports expected to weaken through the summer. July imports are forecast at 2.2 million TEU, down almost eight per cent year on year, while August and September are projected at 2.19 million TEU and 2.08 million TEU, respectively.

NRF vice president Jonathan Gold said inflation and falling confidence are clouding the outlook. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett added that stalling restocking efforts and geopolitical tensions are increasingly undermining demand.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 48.2 in May, down from 49.8 in April. Survey director Joanne Hsu said consumers cited gasoline prices and tariffs as major concerns, noting that Middle East developments are unlikely to improve sentiment until supply disruptions ease.

US retail sales rose 1.7 per cent in March to US$752.1 billion, driven mainly by higher fuel costs, which do not support merchandise imports. Industry executives said expectations for a traditional August-to-October peak season are weak, marking the second consecutive year without a clear surge.

Despite the outlook, carriers are deploying more eastbound transpacific capacity than last year. Data from eeSea showed nearly two million TEU deployed in May, 2.13 million TEU in June and just under 2.2 million TEU in July, with fewer blank sailings compared with 2025. The Global Port Tracker covers imports at 13 major US ports.