Container shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may resume under the US-Iran agreement, but full recovery of supply chains will take at least three months, reports Xeneta.

Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said the deal should be met with caution, noting that 10 per cent of global container capacity remains disrupted and freight rates are surging across major trades.

Before the crisis, 99 services operated in or transited the Arabian Gulf with 3.2 million TEU capacity. Only 11 remain active, representing 74,000 TEU, while 470 ships have been diverted.

Spot rates have jumped 192 per cent on Asia-US West Coast trades, 158 per cent to the US East Coast and 106 per cent into North Europe. Shippers are frontloading imports ahead of bunker fuel surcharges in July.

The agreement sets a 30-day window for minesweeping operations, meaning safe transit cannot resume immediately. Mr Sand said rates will keep climbing until the strait is fully open, possibly four weeks or longer.

Recovery is expected in three phases: extraction of trapped ships and crew, return of feeder services, and cautious reintroduction of long-haul Asia-Europe and Asia-North America routes.

Even after recovery, carriers are expected to favour regional feeder services over direct long-haul calls to build resilience against future disruption in the Gulf.