Air cargo volumes from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe recorded their first week-on-week increase since early June, an early sign that the market may be finding a floor after weeks of decline triggered by the European Union's removal of its low-value import exemption. According to WorldACD Market Data, chargeable weight on the China and Hong Kong to Europe lane rose 1% in week 34, covering 17 to 23 August, against the previous week.

The turnaround gives freight forwarders on Asia-Europe trades a first data point suggesting demand is stabilizing, though at levels well below a year ago. WorldACD noted the increase could mark the bottom of the recent slide, while cautioning that it remains too early to confirm a sustained recovery.

The declines followed the EU's decision to end its de minimis exemption for low-value imports on 1 July, a regulatory shift that raised costs and added customs complexity for e-commerce shipments entering the bloc. For forwarders managing high-volume, low-value flows from Chinese platforms, the change reset a new baseline for clearance work and duty exposure.

Volumes remain depressed on a year-on-year basis. Mainland China-to-Europe tonnage was down 8% compared with the same week in 2025, while Hong Kong-to-Europe traffic fell 33%. The steeper Hong Kong drop reflects the market's heavy reliance on e-commerce cargo that has built up over recent years.

The trend lines diverged in week 34. The year-on-year decline for Hong Kong to Europe narrowed slightly, from 35% in week 33 to 33%, while the gap for mainland China to Europe widened from 5% to 8%. WorldACD said a return of demand after the summer holiday period could support volumes, potentially leaving the market at a lower but more stable level.

Total Asia Pacific-to-Europe volumes increased 3% week on week in week 34, driven by a sharp recovery in Japanese traffic. Shipments from Japan surged 88% following the Obon holiday period of 13 to 16 August, which had suppressed activity. The market had also absorbed disruption from tropical storm Chan-Hom, which forced dozens of flight cancellations at Tokyo's Haneda and Narita airports.

Across the wider region, total volumes originating in Asia Pacific rose 7% week on week, reversing a decline of about 5% the previous week. Volumes stood 4% above the corresponding week last year, with more than half of the weekly gain attributed to the Japanese rebound.

Middle East and South Asia (MESA) origins recovered as well, with volumes up 4% week on week and 7% higher year on year. The region continues to face disruption to capacity and air traffic linked to the US-Iran confrontation.

MESA-to-Europe volumes rose 3% during the week, led by a 5% increase from India, with shipments from Dubai and Bangladesh both up 6%. MESA to US traffic moved the other way, falling 1% week on week, largely because volumes from Dubai dropped 15%.

Asia-Pacific-to-US volumes were broadly flat in week 34. A 33% jump in Japanese shipments offset declines elsewhere, including a 3% fall from mainland China and a 2% dip from Hong Kong. Both Chinese and Hong Kong flow to the US nevertheless remained well above year-earlier levels.

Mainland China to US volumes were 11% higher year on year, down from a 14% increase in week 33, while Hong Kong to US traffic rose 9%, up from 6% the prior week. WorldACD said year-on-year US comparisons remain difficult due to changes in import tariffs and the removal of de minimis exemptions. The US ended the exemption for Chinese and Hong Kong goods in May and extended the change to other markets in August.

Gains from Asia Pacific and MESA were partly offset by declines in Europe and North America, where volumes fell by 4% and 2%, respectively. Global air cargo volumes rose 2% week on week and were 5% higher year on year.

Global air cargo rates held broadly steady at $2.98 per kg in week 34, according to WorldACD. The average, which combines spot and contract rates, has stayed near that level for five consecutive weeks and was 22% higher than a year earlier. Worldwide spot rates edged up 1% to $3.36 per kg, leaving them 28% above last year.

The largest annual spot-rate increase came from North American origins, up 51%, followed by MESA at 42% and Europe at 27%. Asia Pacific origins rose 22% year on year.

China-Europe spot rates have begun to recover after their post-de minimis slide. Mainland China to Europe spot rates fell for six consecutive weeks from mid-June to end-July, dropping from a 2026 peak of $5.43 per kg in week 25 to $3.79 in week 31, a decline of about 30%. Rates have since risen for three straight weeks, reaching $4.14 per kg in week 34 as airlines adjusted capacity to lower demand. That level remains about 24% below the mid-June peak but 13% higher than a year earlier.

Hong Kong to Europe spot rates followed a similar path, falling from a 2026 high of $5.80 per kg in week 25 to $4.90 in week 31, a 16% decline. After a modest recovery in weeks 32 and 33, rates were broadly flat in week 34 at $4.91 per kg, only 5% above the same week last year.

Across the broader Asia Pacific to Europe market, average spot rates held at $4.42 per kg, 15% higher year on year. Rates from high-tech export markets stayed strong: South Korea and Taiwan were both up 25%, Vietnam rose 22%, and Thailand and Malaysia climbed 32% and 42% respectively. Asia Pacific to US spot rates were relatively stable at $6.36 per kg, 32% above a year earlier. China-US and Hong Kong-US rates stood at $6.18 and $6.42 per kg respectively, both below their 2026 peaks as carriers adjust to shifting trade and e-commerce patterns.

Worldwide air cargo capacity was broadly stable in week 34, rising about 1% after falling 1% in each of the previous two weeks. Asia Pacific recorded the largest weekly gain, with capacity up 3% following two weeks of similar declines. MESA capacity rose 1%, extending a 2% increase the prior week.

Despite disruption in parts of the Middle East, global capacity in week 34 stood almost 3% above its level in week seven, before the US and Israeli strikes on Iran began. Capacity from Europe and North America has grown significantly over that period. MESA capacity, however, remained about 11% below its pre-conflict level, and Gulf-region capacity was 17% lower.

The week 34 data indicate an air cargo market adjusting to a period of sustained disruption, with revised e-commerce rules, shifting trade patterns, and geopolitical tension continuing to shape both demand and airline capacity. For freight forwarders, the emerging picture is one of a lower but steadier China-Europe market - a base from which to recalibrate routing, capacity commitments, and customs strategy for the months ahead.