Coronavirus dries up thirst for box ship ordering amid market uncertainty
CONTAINER shipping lines show no interest in fleet expansion as the industry struggles to ride out the fall out from the coronavirus pandemic that has led to a significant drop in orders at shipyards across all shipping sectors.
BIMCO chief shipping analyst Peter Sand was quoted as saying in a report by UK's The Loadstar: "Uncertainty about future environmental regulations, as well as lower demand growth outlook in the coming years had many thinking twice before ordering a new ship. The very sharp decrease in market sentiment and global shipping demand has lowered contracting activity further."
The analyst's shipping market update notes that the earlier main issue of low sulphur compliance and recovery of the additional cost has been overtaken by the virus crisis.
"Coronavirus has certainly replaced IMO 2020 as the talking point of the year," he said. "The demand outlook has weakened and uncertainty has increased across the board.
"This combination is reflected in fleet developments. A weaker outlook results in less contracting and more demolition - although this too has been affected by the restrictions around the world," he added.
According to the latest data from London shipbroker Braemar ACM, there were only three demolition vessel sales in the past 30 days, with most shipbreaking yards in the Indian sub-continent closed as part of the lockdown restrictions in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan.
Moreover, it is questionable whether owners of older, gas-guzzling ships would still look to recycle vessels against the background of a collapse in oil prices, with even compliant low sulphur fuel oil priced at half of the cost of the previous traditional heavy fuel oil.
"For the few charters we are fixing at the moment, fuel efficiency or scrubber-fitted ships are no longer on the list of requirements," said one London containership broker.
On the subject of new orders, Mr Sand said that, in the first two months of this year, only 48,519 TEU of capacity was contracted with the shipyards, although OOCL's order in March for five 23,000 TEU vessels had boosted the orderbook significantly.
Now, with the as-yet-unknown full impact of the coronavirus pandemic on world trade, carriers will likely seek to invoke delay clauses in their contracts with yards, postponing delivery for at least one year.
"Cancellations of orders cannot be ruled out, depending on what stage of the construction has been reached," added another industry source.
He also warned that financially stressed carriers could struggle to finance stage payments on their newbuilds.