Russian crude exports on the rise as OPEC+ partners seek clarity

 RUSSIAN crude oil exports to international markets continue without any significant indication of the output cuts claimed by the Kremlin, reports Bloomberg.

Over the period leading up to June 4, the four-week average of seaborne shipments increased to 3.73 million barrels per day, up from a revised figure of 3.68 million barrels per day in the previous period ending May 28, smoothing out weekly volatility.

These exports to international markets have risen by more than 1.4 million barrels per day compared to the end of the previous year, a surge that cannot be solely attributed to pipeline flow diversions or reduced refinery operations.

Moreover, shipments have been on the rise since February, which serves as the reference month for the promised production cut.

Russia's OPEC+ partners have expressed the need for greater transparency and clarity regarding the country's crude oil production.

They have emphasized that Russia agreed to have the February production levels reassessed by OPEC's secondary sources, which currently estimate it to be at 9.83 million barrels per day.

There is little evidence to support the claim that Russia has implemented the promised 500,000 barrels per day output cut. Moscow has cited the diversion of crude oil previously transported via the Druzhba pipeline to Germany and Poland as the reason for the robust shipments.

However, this diversion occurred in January and February before the scheduled implementation of the output cut.

Since February, the flow of Russian crude oil through the pipeline, now limited to deliveries to Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, has remained stable at around 240,000 barrels per day.

Although Russian refineries reduced their crude oil processing in the first half of May, there was a recovery in the final week of the month, resulting in an increase of 180,000 barrels per day compared to the preceding seven days.

Despite the temporary decline in refinery operations, there is no corresponding decrease in the overseas shipment of refined products.

Russia's oil revenues continue to suffer, despite the solid overseas flows.

Calculations by Bloomberg indicate that oil tax revenues for May declined 31 per cent compared to the previous year, amounting to US$5.2 billion.