According to BIMCO analyst Niels Rasmussen, import volumes rose 4.3 per cent, while exports fell 4.2 per cent. The increase in imports was linked to tariff anticipation and strategic use of bonded and free zone warehouses.

The Budget Lab at Yale noted that the effective US tariff rate climbed from 2.4 per cent in January to 26.0 per cent in April following the "Liberation Day" announcement, before easing to 15.7 per cent in June.

Import volumes surged 10 per cent year on year in the first four months but dropped 6.2 per cent in May and June. US west coast ports saw a 14.4 per cent rise early in the year, followed by a 9.2 per cent decline in the latter period.

Despite early gains, total imports remained below first-half levels recorded in 2021 and 2022 during the Covid peak.

Export volumes continued a downward trend, falling 4.2 per cent. Only China and Canada responded with tariffs, and exports ended 12.5 per cent lower than in 2018.

Mr Rasmussen said the average effective US tariff rate stood at 17.6 per cent on August 1, two points higher than June, when imports fell 5.8 per cent.

Spot freight rates from Shanghai to the US have dropped over 60 per cent since early June, suggesting continued import weakness into the third quarter and possibly beyond.