North American intermodal rail is expected to benefit from new routes and faster transit times in 2026, even as regulators weigh the proposed Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger, reports New York's Journal of Commerce.

The US$85 billion deal would create the first single-line transcontinental railroad. Its announcement in July 2025 spurred rivals BNSF and CSX to launch coast-to-coast lanes and accelerate services. UP and NS also began joint operations linking the west cast, Mexico and Texas with Louisville, boosting market share at the expense of BNSF and JB Hunt.

Domestic intermodal volumes rose 3.5 per cent year on year through October, according to the Intermodal Association of North America. Shippers expect mostly flat contract rates in early 2026, with some increases on outbound west coast lanes. JB Hunt may cut prices to regain share, while Hub Group and Swift Intermodal compete for slots on NS trains.

Additional BNSF-CSX single-line services to the Northeast will open when double-stacking through Baltimore begins in spring. Former Surface Transportation Board chairman Daniel Elliott said regulators appear inclined to approve the UP-NS merger, citing political alignment under President Donald Trump.

Analysts caution that sustained growth depends on a recovery in the truckload market. With road capacity still abundant, intermodal expansion will remain modest until US manufacturing and construction activity strengthen.