The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the trade body representing some 300 airlines that account for more than 80% of global air traffic, reported that global air cargo demand rose 3.9% year-on-year in July 2026, extending a run of steady expansion across the sector.

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased 3.9% compared with July 2025, with international operations growing a stronger 4.7%. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), rose 1.7% overall and 1.8% for international operations. With demand outpacing capacity, the figures point to a tightening market that freight forwarders will watch closely for its effect on rates and space availability.

Growth was recorded across all regions, but carriers in Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America drove the momentum, together accounting for more than 90% of the overall increase.

A notable shift emerged in how goods moved. Dedicated freighters gained market share as belly-hold traffic declined — a change that may reflect rising demand for larger or specialist shipments, alongside the routing flexibility and scheduling control that freighter operations provide.

"Air cargo demand grew 3.9% year-on-year in July. While all regions recorded growth, airlines in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America accounted for more than 90% of the overall increase," said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA's Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist. "Dedicated freighters gained market share as belly-hold traffic declined, possibly reflecting demand for larger or specialist shipments and the operational flexibility that freighters can provide. Looking ahead, the outlook remains broadly positive, supported by manufacturing activity, export orders and global trade. However, higher fuel prices, geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty will need to be watched carefully."

Several indicators shaped the July market. Global trade increased 7.5% year-on-year, providing a broad tailwind for cross-border shipment volumes.

Jet fuel prices, however, added cost pressure. Prices climbed 12.2% month-on-month in July and stood 56.9% higher than a year earlier — a jump that carries direct implications for surcharges and total landed cost across the supply chain.

Manufacturing signals were mixed but broadly supportive. The Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased 0.3 points to 52.7, remaining above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. The New Export Orders Index rose to 50.0, indicating stabilizing demand for cross-border goods. Taken together, the two indicators point to an environment that continues to underpin air cargo demand.

IATA characterized the near-term outlook as broadly positive, supported by continued manufacturing activity, recovering export orders, and resilient global trade. The association flagged higher fuel prices, geopolitical tensions, and tariff uncertainty as the principal risks to monitor in the months ahead — factors that can reshape routing decisions, cost structures, and capacity planning for logistics providers managing global networks.