CMA CGM's recent order for nine 22,000-TEU vessels was not a indication of an incoming flood of new orders from container shipping lines, according to CEO of Hapag-Lloyd Rolf Habben Jansen, who is of the opinion that the size of the box ship orderbook is moving to a "fairly reasonable" level.

Speaking at the JOC Container Trade Europe conference in Hamburg, Mr Jansen told delegates that the container shipping industry's supply and demand gap is set to converge in 2018 as scrapping and postponements keep net capacity growth low and the appetite for new orders remains subdued.

"We may see the orderbook drop to 10 per cent of global fleet capacity by the end of the year," Mr Jansen was quoted as saying in a report by IHS Media.

IHS Markit data show that at present the orderbook is between 13 per cent and 14 per cent of total global fleet capacity. Cosco, Maersk, Evergreen, and Mediterranean Shipping Co are the top four carriers in terms of tonnage on order, and 80 per cent of the vessels on order are above 10,000 TEU capacity.

"Several large carriers say they have no plans to order and there are fewer companies to put in orders (due to industry consolidation)," said Mr Jansen.

"A big priority among carriers at the moment is to pay down debt to settle losses over the past 10 years, which has resulted in strained balance sheets," he added.

Mr Jansen noted what he described as a "drastic" decline in the orderbook-to-fleet ratio from 61 per cent in 2007 to 14 per cent in 2017 and said current high levels of scrapping and delivery postponements are maintaining net capacity growth at low levels.

He noted that the business case for ordering larger vessels was limited, with the incremental improvement in operating costs between a 22,000-TEU vessel and 18,000-TEU vessel "virtually negligible".

The confirmation of CMA CGM's order for nine 22,000 TEU ships has triggered speculation by industry watchers and shippers that the recent capacity discipline displayed by ocean liners could be fading.

However, high levels of scrapping and deferrals are expected to keep fleet capacity growth at around three or four per cent this year. Global container volume growth was 3.9 per cent in the first half of the year, and analysts are projecting full-year growth of five per cent.